I was recently reminded of an industry event in 2015, which prompted further consideration. The title of this article, “The 5th scenario,” is a deliberate takeoff on one of Michael Lewis’ lesserknown books, “The Fifth Risk,” which I recommend to anyone interested in a deeper understanding of institutions’ role in maintaining democracy, and the current political circus in the United States.
A decade ago, “LeadingAge” contracted the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF), which was led by Alvin Toffler, the celebrated demographer and futurist, to look toward 2030 and create a series of possible scenarios for aging services and housing in the US. The result of this work, a toolkit, was released in 2016 and is still available. (https://leadingage.org/2030scenarios/)
Since we are now far closer to 2030 than in 2015, I think it would be useful to consider a summary of the four (4) scenarios that were published in 2016. And (with apologies to Larry Minnix, and Katie Smith-Sloan), I also offer a fifth scenario.